# Phase 4 Plus Visualization Atlas > 用途：对当前 package 中所有 figure 的用途、路径和引用方式做一份统一说明。 > 原则：本 atlas 既回答“哪些图被用了”，也回答“每张图在当前论证中负责什么”。 --- ## 1. 为什么当前 package 需要单独的图件 atlas 当前 `Phase 4 + next-stage + next-layer` 的叙事既依赖旧的 anchor figures，也依赖这次新生成的状态/bridge/gate 图；同时，meeting 里已经明确要求主图、补充图、历史图、archive support figure 分层管理。因此，如果只给 PDF，而不给单独 atlas，后来的人很容易知道“图存在”，但不知道： - 哪张图服务 mechanism-first； - 哪张图服务 Group B； - 哪张图只是 boundary/support； - 哪张图是这次 package 新增，而不是旧项目遗留； - 哪张图来自当前项目树，哪张图来自 archive support tree。 --- ## 2. 当前 figure inventory 摘要 - current-delivery generated figures: `6` - anchor figures reused in current story: `3` - current project support figures: `14` - archive support figures: `6` - canonical figure total in this package: `29` ### 2.1 Current generated figures - `F1` | `results/phase4plus_figures/phase4plus_fig1_delivery_status_matrix.png` | Top-level state ladder from frozen Phase 4 to evidence-gated delivery. - `F2` | `results/phase4plus_figures/phase4plus_fig2_cross_country_bridge.png` | Accuracy and delta profile for UK, USA, and MTUS wave-1 bridge rows. - `F3` | `results/phase4plus_figures/phase4plus_fig3_mtus_wave1_country_delta.png` | Five-country wave-1 delta profile for current MTUS bridge evidence. - `F4` | `results/phase4plus_figures/phase4plus_fig4_groupb_axes.png` | Employment, gender, income, and age status with structural-boundary annotation. - `F5` | `results/phase4plus_figures/phase4plus_fig5_extension_support.png` | Trigger difficulty, contextual/hazard lift, and expanding-window negativity. - `F6` | `results/phase4plus_figures/phase4plus_fig6_evidence_gate.png` | Default-delivery pass/hold structure and stronger-claim trigger rule. ### 2.2 Current anchor figures - `ANCHOR-6` | `results/anchor_figures/figure6_transition_analysis.png` | Primary mechanism-first anchor for stay versus transition asymmetry. - `ANCHOR-8` | `results/anchor_figures/figure8_input_info_effect.png` | Anchor figure for the claim that more history or channels do not materially improve prediction. - `ANCHOR-10` | `results/anchor_figures/figure10_dimension_importance.png` | Primary social-stratification figure, but only under explicit caption boundaries. ### 2.3 Current project support figures - `FIGURE1` | `results/project_figures/figure1_a_class_performance.png` | Historical stage overview for cross-channel asymmetry. Keep as background, not current mainline. - `FIGURE2` | `results/project_figures/figure2_b_class_heatmap.png` | Grouped heatmap context for older subgroup evidence. - `FIGURE3` | `results/project_figures/figure3_e2b_waterfall.png` | Historical channel-to-channel asymmetry support figure. - `FIGURE4` | `results/project_figures/figure4_e1_model_comparison.png` | Historical accuracy-first comparison. Preserve as archive evidence only. - `FIGURE5` | `results/project_figures/figure5_bootstrap_ci.png` | Bootstrap uncertainty support for between-group spread estimates. - `FIGURE7` | `results/project_figures/figure7_imputation_robustness.png` | Supplementary robustness figure for missingness handling. - `FIGURE9` | `results/project_figures/figure9_unified_model_comparison.png` | Historical unified comparison figure retained as background. - `FIGURE11` | `results/project_figures/figure11_deep_transition.png` | Current mainline support figure for transition difficulty across model families. - `FIGURE12` | `results/project_figures/figure12_order_vs_bag.png` | Current mechanism-support figure showing sequence order dominance. - `FIGURE13` | `results/project_figures/figure13_role_timelines.png` | Interpretive timeline figure for role-pattern communication. - `FIGURE14` | `results/project_figures/figure14_role_comparison.png` | Interpretive comparison figure for role-pattern communication. - `SUPP1` | `results/project_figures/supplementary_fig1_deep_models_by_income.png` | Supplementary figure for high-income complexity and deep-model lift. - `SUPP2` | `results/project_figures/supplementary_fig2_multitask_comparison.png` | Supplementary architecture-comparison figure. - `SUPP3` | `results/project_figures/supplementary_fig3_error_rate_by_group.png` | Supplementary group-level error distribution figure. ### 2.4 Archive support figures - `P2-F8` | `results/archive_support_figures/phase2_fig8_us_sample_size_delta_shift.png` | Archive support figure showing why quick negatives should not be over-read without pooled support. - `P2-F10` | `results/archive_support_figures/phase2_fig10_us_pooled_support_vs_delta.png` | Archive support figure for pooled support-width and activity/location delta interpretation. - `P3-F1` | `results/archive_support_figures/phase3_fig1_a1_delta_by_country.png` | Archive support figure for MTUS country-level external-validity variation. - `P3-F10` | `results/archive_support_figures/phase3_fig10_sample_size_vs_delta.png` | Archive support figure for sample-size sensitivity in external-validity runs. - `P3-F11` | `results/archive_support_figures/phase3_fig11_a1_country_ci_forest.png` | Archive support figure for country-level uncertainty without sign reversal. - `P3-F12` | `results/archive_support_figures/phase3_fig12_b1_distribution_boxplots.png` | Archive support figure for grouped full-run distributions across countries. --- ## 3. 图件逐张说明 ### 3.1 Current generated figures #### 1. Phase 4+ delivery status matrix - canonical_path: `results/phase4plus_figures/phase4plus_fig1_delivery_status_matrix.png` - original_path: `ORIGINAL_FIGURES/PHASE4PLUS_results_figures/phase4plus_fig1_delivery_status_matrix.png` - source: `live summary jsons` - package role: Top-level state ladder from frozen Phase 4 to evidence-gated delivery. ![Phase 4+ delivery status matrix](results/phase4plus_figures/phase4plus_fig1_delivery_status_matrix.png) #### 2. Cross-country bridge rows - canonical_path: `results/phase4plus_figures/phase4plus_fig2_cross_country_bridge.png` - original_path: `ORIGINAL_FIGURES/PHASE4PLUS_results_figures/phase4plus_fig2_cross_country_bridge.png` - source: `results/next_stage_cross_country_activity_master/summary.json` - package role: Accuracy and delta profile for UK, USA, and MTUS wave-1 bridge rows. ![Cross-country bridge rows](results/phase4plus_figures/phase4plus_fig2_cross_country_bridge.png) #### 3. MTUS wave-1 country deltas - canonical_path: `results/phase4plus_figures/phase4plus_fig3_mtus_wave1_country_delta.png` - original_path: `ORIGINAL_FIGURES/PHASE4PLUS_results_figures/phase4plus_fig3_mtus_wave1_country_delta.png` - source: `results/next_stage_cross_country_activity_master/summary.json` - package role: Five-country wave-1 delta profile for current MTUS bridge evidence. ![MTUS wave-1 country deltas](results/phase4plus_figures/phase4plus_fig3_mtus_wave1_country_delta.png) #### 4. Group B axis ladder - canonical_path: `results/phase4plus_figures/phase4plus_fig4_groupb_axes.png` - original_path: `ORIGINAL_FIGURES/PHASE4PLUS_results_figures/phase4plus_fig4_groupb_axes.png` - source: `results/next_stage_groupb_master/summary.json` - package role: Employment, gender, income, and age status with structural-boundary annotation. ![Group B axis ladder](results/phase4plus_figures/phase4plus_fig4_groupb_axes.png) #### 5. Next-layer support and boundary evidence - canonical_path: `results/phase4plus_figures/phase4plus_fig5_extension_support.png` - original_path: `ORIGINAL_FIGURES/PHASE4PLUS_results_figures/phase4plus_fig5_extension_support.png` - source: `results/next_layer_extension_summary/summary.json` - package role: Trigger difficulty, contextual/hazard lift, and expanding-window negativity. ![Next-layer support and boundary evidence](results/phase4plus_figures/phase4plus_fig5_extension_support.png) #### 6. Evidence gate decision - canonical_path: `results/phase4plus_figures/phase4plus_fig6_evidence_gate.png` - original_path: `ORIGINAL_FIGURES/PHASE4PLUS_results_figures/phase4plus_fig6_evidence_gate.png` - source: `results/evidence_gate_decision/summary.json` - package role: Default-delivery pass/hold structure and stronger-claim trigger rule. ![Evidence gate decision](results/phase4plus_figures/phase4plus_fig6_evidence_gate.png) ### 3.2 Current anchor figures #### 7. Figure 6 transition analysis - canonical_path: `results/anchor_figures/figure6_transition_analysis.png` - original_path: `ORIGINAL_FIGURES/ANCHOR_results_figures/figure6_transition_analysis.png` - source: `results/figures/figure6_transition_analysis.png` - package role: Primary mechanism-first anchor for stay versus transition asymmetry. ![Figure 6 transition analysis](results/anchor_figures/figure6_transition_analysis.png) #### 8. Figure 8 input-information effect - canonical_path: `results/anchor_figures/figure8_input_info_effect.png` - original_path: `ORIGINAL_FIGURES/ANCHOR_results_figures/figure8_input_info_effect.png` - source: `results/figures/figure8_input_info_effect.png` - package role: Anchor figure for the claim that more history or channels do not materially improve prediction. ![Figure 8 input-information effect](results/anchor_figures/figure8_input_info_effect.png) #### 9. Figure 10 dimension importance - canonical_path: `results/anchor_figures/figure10_dimension_importance.png` - original_path: `ORIGINAL_FIGURES/ANCHOR_results_figures/figure10_dimension_importance.png` - source: `results/figures/figure10_dimension_importance.png` - package role: Primary social-stratification figure, but only under explicit caption boundaries. ![Figure 10 dimension importance](results/anchor_figures/figure10_dimension_importance.png) ### 3.3 Current project support figures #### 10. Figure 1 A-class performance - canonical_path: `results/project_figures/figure1_a_class_performance.png` - original_path: `ORIGINAL_FIGURES/PROJECT_results_figures/figure1_a_class_performance.png` - source: `results/figures/figure1_a_class_performance.png` - package role: Historical stage overview for cross-channel asymmetry. Keep as background, not current mainline. ![Figure 1 A-class performance](results/project_figures/figure1_a_class_performance.png) #### 11. Figure 2 B-class heatmap - canonical_path: `results/project_figures/figure2_b_class_heatmap.png` - original_path: `ORIGINAL_FIGURES/PROJECT_results_figures/figure2_b_class_heatmap.png` - source: `results/figures/figure2_b_class_heatmap.png` - package role: Grouped heatmap context for older subgroup evidence. ![Figure 2 B-class heatmap](results/project_figures/figure2_b_class_heatmap.png) #### 12. Figure 3 E2B waterfall - canonical_path: `results/project_figures/figure3_e2b_waterfall.png` - original_path: `ORIGINAL_FIGURES/PROJECT_results_figures/figure3_e2b_waterfall.png` - source: `results/figures/figure3_e2b_waterfall.png` - package role: Historical channel-to-channel asymmetry support figure. ![Figure 3 E2B waterfall](results/project_figures/figure3_e2b_waterfall.png) #### 13. Figure 4 E1 model comparison - canonical_path: `results/project_figures/figure4_e1_model_comparison.png` - original_path: `ORIGINAL_FIGURES/PROJECT_results_figures/figure4_e1_model_comparison.png` - source: `results/figures/figure4_e1_model_comparison.png` - package role: Historical accuracy-first comparison. Preserve as archive evidence only. ![Figure 4 E1 model comparison](results/project_figures/figure4_e1_model_comparison.png) #### 14. Figure 5 bootstrap confidence intervals - canonical_path: `results/project_figures/figure5_bootstrap_ci.png` - original_path: `ORIGINAL_FIGURES/PROJECT_results_figures/figure5_bootstrap_ci.png` - source: `results/figures/figure5_bootstrap_ci.png` - package role: Bootstrap uncertainty support for between-group spread estimates. ![Figure 5 bootstrap confidence intervals](results/project_figures/figure5_bootstrap_ci.png) #### 15. Figure 7 imputation robustness - canonical_path: `results/project_figures/figure7_imputation_robustness.png` - original_path: `ORIGINAL_FIGURES/PROJECT_results_figures/figure7_imputation_robustness.png` - source: `results/figures/figure7_imputation_robustness.png` - package role: Supplementary robustness figure for missingness handling. ![Figure 7 imputation robustness](results/project_figures/figure7_imputation_robustness.png) #### 16. Figure 9 unified model comparison - canonical_path: `results/project_figures/figure9_unified_model_comparison.png` - original_path: `ORIGINAL_FIGURES/PROJECT_results_figures/figure9_unified_model_comparison.png` - source: `results/figures/figure9_unified_model_comparison.png` - package role: Historical unified comparison figure retained as background. ![Figure 9 unified model comparison](results/project_figures/figure9_unified_model_comparison.png) #### 17. Figure 11 deep transition - canonical_path: `results/project_figures/figure11_deep_transition.png` - original_path: `ORIGINAL_FIGURES/PROJECT_results_figures/figure11_deep_transition.png` - source: `results/figures/figure11_deep_transition.png` - package role: Current mainline support figure for transition difficulty across model families. ![Figure 11 deep transition](results/project_figures/figure11_deep_transition.png) #### 18. Figure 12 order versus bag - canonical_path: `results/project_figures/figure12_order_vs_bag.png` - original_path: `ORIGINAL_FIGURES/PROJECT_results_figures/figure12_order_vs_bag.png` - source: `results/figures/figure12_order_vs_bag.png` - package role: Current mechanism-support figure showing sequence order dominance. ![Figure 12 order versus bag](results/project_figures/figure12_order_vs_bag.png) #### 19. Figure 13 role timelines - canonical_path: `results/project_figures/figure13_role_timelines.png` - original_path: `ORIGINAL_FIGURES/PROJECT_results_figures/figure13_role_timelines.png` - source: `results/figures/figure13_role_timelines.png` - package role: Interpretive timeline figure for role-pattern communication. ![Figure 13 role timelines](results/project_figures/figure13_role_timelines.png) #### 20. Figure 14 role comparison - canonical_path: `results/project_figures/figure14_role_comparison.png` - original_path: `ORIGINAL_FIGURES/PROJECT_results_figures/figure14_role_comparison.png` - source: `results/figures/figure14_role_comparison.png` - package role: Interpretive comparison figure for role-pattern communication. ![Figure 14 role comparison](results/project_figures/figure14_role_comparison.png) #### 21. Supplementary Figure 1 deep models by income - canonical_path: `results/project_figures/supplementary_fig1_deep_models_by_income.png` - original_path: `ORIGINAL_FIGURES/PROJECT_results_figures/supplementary_fig1_deep_models_by_income.png` - source: `results/figures/supplementary_fig1_deep_models_by_income.png` - package role: Supplementary figure for high-income complexity and deep-model lift. ![Supplementary Figure 1 deep models by income](results/project_figures/supplementary_fig1_deep_models_by_income.png) #### 22. Supplementary Figure 2 multitask comparison - canonical_path: `results/project_figures/supplementary_fig2_multitask_comparison.png` - original_path: `ORIGINAL_FIGURES/PROJECT_results_figures/supplementary_fig2_multitask_comparison.png` - source: `results/figures/supplementary_fig2_multitask_comparison.png` - package role: Supplementary architecture-comparison figure. ![Supplementary Figure 2 multitask comparison](results/project_figures/supplementary_fig2_multitask_comparison.png) #### 23. Supplementary Figure 3 error rate by group - canonical_path: `results/project_figures/supplementary_fig3_error_rate_by_group.png` - original_path: `ORIGINAL_FIGURES/PROJECT_results_figures/supplementary_fig3_error_rate_by_group.png` - source: `results/figures/supplementary_fig3_error_rate_by_group.png` - package role: Supplementary group-level error distribution figure. ![Supplementary Figure 3 error rate by group](results/project_figures/supplementary_fig3_error_rate_by_group.png) ### 3.4 Archive support figures #### 24. Phase 2 sample-size delta shift - canonical_path: `results/archive_support_figures/phase2_fig8_us_sample_size_delta_shift.png` - original_path: `ORIGINAL_FIGURES/ARCHIVE_support_figures/phase2_fig8_us_sample_size_delta_shift.png` - source: `ADVISOR_PACKAGE_PHASE1_2_3_20260403/ORIGINAL_FIGURES/PHASE2_results_phase2_figures/phase2_fig8_us_sample_size_delta_shift.png` - package role: Archive support figure showing why quick negatives should not be over-read without pooled support. ![Phase 2 sample-size delta shift](results/archive_support_figures/phase2_fig8_us_sample_size_delta_shift.png) #### 25. Phase 2 pooled support versus delta - canonical_path: `results/archive_support_figures/phase2_fig10_us_pooled_support_vs_delta.png` - original_path: `ORIGINAL_FIGURES/ARCHIVE_support_figures/phase2_fig10_us_pooled_support_vs_delta.png` - source: `ADVISOR_PACKAGE_PHASE1_2_3_20260403/ORIGINAL_FIGURES/PHASE2_results_phase2_figures/phase2_fig10_us_pooled_support_vs_delta.png` - package role: Archive support figure for pooled support-width and activity/location delta interpretation. ![Phase 2 pooled support versus delta](results/archive_support_figures/phase2_fig10_us_pooled_support_vs_delta.png) #### 26. Phase 3 A1 delta by country - canonical_path: `results/archive_support_figures/phase3_fig1_a1_delta_by_country.png` - original_path: `ORIGINAL_FIGURES/ARCHIVE_support_figures/phase3_fig1_a1_delta_by_country.png` - source: `ADVISOR_PACKAGE_PHASE1_2_3_20260403/ORIGINAL_FIGURES/PHASE3_results_phase3_figures/phase3_fig1_a1_delta_by_country.png` - package role: Archive support figure for MTUS country-level external-validity variation. ![Phase 3 A1 delta by country](results/archive_support_figures/phase3_fig1_a1_delta_by_country.png) #### 27. Phase 3 sample size versus delta - canonical_path: `results/archive_support_figures/phase3_fig10_sample_size_vs_delta.png` - original_path: `ORIGINAL_FIGURES/ARCHIVE_support_figures/phase3_fig10_sample_size_vs_delta.png` - source: `ADVISOR_PACKAGE_PHASE1_2_3_20260403/ORIGINAL_FIGURES/PHASE3_results_phase3_figures/phase3_fig10_sample_size_vs_delta.png` - package role: Archive support figure for sample-size sensitivity in external-validity runs. ![Phase 3 sample size versus delta](results/archive_support_figures/phase3_fig10_sample_size_vs_delta.png) #### 28. Phase 3 country CI forest - canonical_path: `results/archive_support_figures/phase3_fig11_a1_country_ci_forest.png` - original_path: `ORIGINAL_FIGURES/ARCHIVE_support_figures/phase3_fig11_a1_country_ci_forest.png` - source: `ADVISOR_PACKAGE_PHASE1_2_3_20260403/ORIGINAL_FIGURES/PHASE3_results_phase3_figures/phase3_fig11_a1_country_ci_forest.png` - package role: Archive support figure for country-level uncertainty without sign reversal. ![Phase 3 country CI forest](results/archive_support_figures/phase3_fig11_a1_country_ci_forest.png) #### 29. Phase 3 grouped distribution boxplots - canonical_path: `results/archive_support_figures/phase3_fig12_b1_distribution_boxplots.png` - original_path: `ORIGINAL_FIGURES/ARCHIVE_support_figures/phase3_fig12_b1_distribution_boxplots.png` - source: `ADVISOR_PACKAGE_PHASE1_2_3_20260403/ORIGINAL_FIGURES/PHASE3_results_phase3_figures/phase3_fig12_b1_distribution_boxplots.png` - package role: Archive support figure for grouped full-run distributions across countries. ![Phase 3 grouped distribution boxplots](results/archive_support_figures/phase3_fig12_b1_distribution_boxplots.png) --- ## 4. 当前 package 的图件结构 - 新生成的当前态图位于：`results/phase4plus_figures/` - 当前 package 复用的 anchor figures 位于：`results/anchor_figures/` - 当前项目 support figures 位于：`results/project_figures/` - archive support figures 位于：`results/archive_support_figures/` - 所有原图镜像位于：`ORIGINAL_FIGURES/` 如果需要稳定引用，请优先使用 `results/...` 里的 canonical paths；`ORIGINAL_FIGURES/...` 更适合邮件、PPT 或单独抽图。